Three of the biggest U.S. drug makers will unveil their third‑quarter results on Oct. 29, and analysts warn that recent acquisitions and pricing shifts could reshape expectations.
Key points
- Eli Lilly’s EPS outlook has been cut sharply due to expected acquisition charges, even as revenue growth remains robust.
- Merck expects Keytruda sales to slow and warns that a timing benefit seen in 2025 will not repeat, with exclusivity loss in 2028 a long‑term concern.
- Gilead’s cash position has been eroded by recent deals, making the upcoming FDA decision on anito‑cel a pivotal catalyst.
- All three companies have posted strong year‑to‑date stock performance, but analysts highlight pricing pressure and integration risk as key headwinds.
On Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) will release their Q3 earnings, with Merck opening the day at 9 a.m. ET, Lilly following at 10 a.m. ET, and Gilead reporting after the market close. Analysts note that acquisition‑related charges will distort per‑share metrics, making revenue a cleaner comparison across the three firms.
Eli Lilly’s consensus EPS estimate has slipped from $9.93 to $6.67 over the past month, reflecting anticipated post‑quarter acquisition expenses. Revenue is still projected to rise 28.5% year‑over‑year to $22.62 billion, driven by strong sales of Mounjaro ($9.94 billion) and Zepbound ($4.93 billion). The company’s guidance excludes R&D costs incurred after June 30, and its CFO highlighted that future growth will rely more on international market penetration as U.S. prices fell 9% last quarter.
Eli Lilly faces EPS downgrade
Merck’s outlook centers on its cancer drug Keytruda, which the CFO said will see moderated U.S. growth and will not benefit from a $250 million wholesaler timing advantage that boosted Q3 2025 results. Consensus EPS for the quarter stands at $2.09, down 18.8% year‑over‑year, while revenue is expected to be flat at $17.35 billion. A key risk cited is the loss of Keytruda’s exclusivity in 2028, which the CEO described as “more of a hill than a cliff.”
Gilead Sciences entered the day with a cash balance of $3.2 billion, down sharply from $10.6 billion after completing three acquisitions (Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro). The company’s Q3 EPS estimate is $2.21, a 10.7% decline, with revenue projected at $7.81 billion, a modest 0.5% increase. Management is awaiting an FDA decision on the gene‑therapy candidate anito‑cel on Dec. 23, 2026, and has raised its 2026 product‑sales guidance to $30.1‑$30.4 billion. A quarterly dividend of $0.82 per share remains in place, but the shrinking cash pile is flagged as a primary risk.
Merck’s Keytruda growth to moderate
All three stocks have outperformed the broader market this year—Lilly up 18.7%, Merck up 33.2%, and Gilead up 30.8% YTD—but analysts remain cautious. A 24/7 Wall St. report noted that despite Lilly’s strong share price gains, it did not make the outlet’s “Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now” list, underscoring the uncertainty around its post‑acquisition earnings trajectory.
Reader questions
When will the Q3 earnings reports for Eli Lilly, Merck and Gilead be released?
Eli Lilly reports at 10 a.m. ET, Merck at 9 a.m. ET on Oct. 29, 2026, and Gilead releases its results after the market close, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET.
What are the main risks highlighted for each company?
Lilly faces pricing erosion in the U.S. and integration costs from three recent infectious‑disease acquisitions. Merck’s risk centers on the upcoming loss of Keytruda’s exclusivity in 2028 and the absence of a $250 million timing benefit seen in Q3 2025. Gilead’s primary concern is a reduced cash balance after three acquisitions and the pending FDA decision on anito‑cel.
How have recent acquisitions affected Gilead’s financial position?
Gilead’s cash fell to $3.2 billion from $10.6 billion after completing the Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro deals, a decline noted by analysts as a key risk factor.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
